The price of Russia’s flagship Urals crude has fallen back to levels seen before the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. According to Bloomberg, citing Argus Media, the average price of Urals crude at Russia’s western ports stood at $41.66 per barrel during the first three days of July.
After a temporary surge driven by disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have dropped sharply again, reducing the additional revenue Moscow had relied on to replenish its reserve fund and postpone spending cuts.
Analysts warn that if oil prices remain below the level assumed in Russia’s federal budget, the Kremlin will face greater difficulty containing its growing fiscal deficit. During the first five months of 2026, Russia’s budget deficit reached 6 trillion rubles (about $77 billion), exceeding the full-year target by roughly 60%.
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