A new wave of mobilization, which has been discussed in Russia for several months, could provide the Kremlin with additional troops while also creating serious internal risks.
According to the Financial Times, citing a source close to Russia’s Defense Ministry, sending newly mobilized personnel to fight in Ukraine could result in heavy casualties and a rise in desertions.
The source warned that large losses among mobilized men combined with widespread desertion could have highly negative political consequences for the Kremlin and affect the domestic situation in Russia.
The experience of the previous mobilization illustrates the scale of the potential problem. Of the roughly 300,000 Russians mobilized in 2022, around 168,000 were estimated to remain on the front by early 2026, according to Janis Kluge, an expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
According to his calculations, Russia may have lost around 50,000 mobilized troops during the first year after the mobilization. Another approximately 80,000 may have been lost last year. By mid-2026, the size of the first mobilization wave may have fallen to just over 100,000 personnel, Kluge estimated.
Meanwhile, the Financial Times reports that the overall number of Russian troops killed since the beginning of the full-scale invasion is approaching 500,000. According to CSIS estimates, Russia’s total military casualties, including the wounded, could reach 1.4 million personnel.
A new mobilization could therefore strengthen Russia’s forces on the battlefield, but at the same time increase social tensions, desertions and political risks for the Kremlin.
Earlier reports indicated that the Kremlin and Russia’s Defense Ministry had instructed regional officials to recruit 409,000 contract soldiers as part of the military recruitment target set for 2026.
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