Andy Burnham has radically shifted the public’s view of British politics, with a majority now saying they believe his Labour Party has a real chance of winning the next election, whenever it comes.
That’s the verdict of a new POLITICO Poll from Public First, which captures the state of play after Burnham’s first two months as prime minister — and shows what voters want him to do if they’re going to give him more time in Downing Street.
The poll, published at the POLITICO Pub at Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool, found 53% of voters believe Labour has a realistic shot at keeping power. That is a big increase from 33% in May — when Burnham’s predecessor Keir Starmer was in the final stages of his doomed premiership.
Most headline polls ask voters which party they will vote for, and these results tend to show small shifts from one survey to the next. This poll looked at who voters expect to win the next election — capturing a different sense of the national mood to show the scale of the impact Burnham’s arrival has made on British politics.
The transformation in Labour’s credibility as an electoral force suggests the gamble the party’s MPs took in forcing Starmer out after a disastrous set of local and regional elections in May has paid off so far. Not only do headline voting intention polls now frequently put Labour narrowly in the lead, but the Public First results show the “Burnham bounce” has been noticed by voters, too.
“Before Andy Burnham arrived on the Westminster scene, there was a sense that a Reform government was inevitable — that has now gone,” said Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First. “In an election where tactical voting could decide many key constituencies, being seen to be able to win could be just as important for Labour as being popular.”
For Nigel Farage’s right-wing populist Reform UK, fortunes have reversed. Four months ago, almost two-thirds — 65% — said Reform had a genuine chance of winning, but that figure has now dropped to 47% in this month’s poll, after a succession of negative headlines over alleged funding scandals and a special election in his seat.
Even so, more people believe Reform can still win the next election than think the party is completely out of the running.
The Conservatives, however, remain deep in trouble, according to the poll: More voters discount them as realistic contenders for power than say they have a chance of victory.
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