After rapid growth fueled by record military spending in 2023–2024, Russia’s economy has begun to lose momentum. During the first half of 2026, the country’s GDP expanded by just 0.3%, according to TMT, citing Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development.
By comparison, Russia’s economy grew by 1.2% during the same period in 2025, making this year’s figure four times lower. Compared with the second half of last year, growth also slowed from 0.9% to 0.3%.
The ministry estimated that the economy expanded by 1.1% in June, but that was not enough to offset a 0.2% contraction in the first quarter and near-stagnation during April and May.
Analysts say the economic surge of previous years was largely driven by unprecedented government spending on the military sector. However, even Russia’s defense industry is now showing signs of slowing growth.
Output of fabricated metal products—including ammunition, according to Russian statistical classifications—increased by 8.8% in the first half of the year, compared with 18% a year earlier. Production of computers, electronics, and optical equipment also slowed to 4.3%, down from 11.7% in the previous year.
Meanwhile, civilian industries continue to weaken. Clothing production declined by 6.3% during the first six months of the year, while the metallurgical sector reduced output by 9.1%.
Russia’s oil refining industry has also been hit by attacks on refinery infrastructure. In June, production of petroleum products dropped by 21.7%, marking the steepest monthly decline in nearly 20 years. Overall, output fell 7.7% in the first half of the year.
Analysts also point to growing problems at Russia’s largest online marketplace, Wildberries, as another risk to the economy. Fires at the company’s warehouses could force thousands of merchants out of business, potentially affecting loan repayments, tax revenues, and the banking sector.
Russia’s economy grew by only 1% in 2025, 2.5 times below the government’s original forecast. For 2026, the Ministry of Economic Development initially projected GDP growth of 1.2%, but later revised the estimate down to 0.4%.
At the same time, Sberbank and the Central Bank of Russia have warned that economic growth could be even weaker, forecasting an expansion of just 0% to 0.5%.
Earlier, Estonian intelligence reported that successful strikes by Ukraine’s Defense Forces on Russian territory are having an increasingly significant impact on Russia’s economy and logistics.
Leave a comment